Лекция профессора Arvid Naess из Норвежского университета науки и технологий

17 апреля в 11:00 в ауд. 685 состоится лекция профессора Норвежского университета науки технологий (г.Тронхейм) Arvid Naess. Arvid Naess - известный специалист по статистике стохастической динамики и экстремальных значений, автор книги "Stochastic Dynamics of Marine Structures" (см. http://www.amazon.com/Arvid-N%C3%A6ss/e/B00DX0R584).

Тема лекции: "Estimation of extreme values by the average conditional exceedance rate method".

Аннотация.

The talk details a method for extreme value prediction on the basis of a sampled time series.

The method is specifically designed to account for statistical dependence between the sampled data points in a precise manner. In fact, if properly used, the new method will provide statistical estimates of the exact extreme value distribution provided by the data in most cases of practical interest. It avoids the problem of having to decluster the data to ensure independence, which is a requisite component in the application of e.g. the standard peaks-over-threshold method. The proposed method also targets the use of sub-asymptotic data to improve prediction accuracy.

The method will be demonstrated by application to both synthetic and real data. From a practical point of view, it seems to perform better than the POT and block extremes methods, and, with an appropriate modification, it is directly applicable to nonstationary time series.

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